Windows Phone market share up to 11.6 percent by 2016 according to IDC

The research company IDC today released its forecast for the smartphone market, or rather, the distribution of individual operating systems between now and 2016. Global smartphone volume in the fourth quarter of 2012 (4Q12) is expected to reach 224.5 million units, representing 39.5% year-over-year growth due primarily to strong consumer demand.

For the year, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 45.1% year over year to 717.5 million units. Strong smartphone growth is a result of a variety of factors, including steep device subsidies from carriers, especially in mature economic markets where carriers resell the majority of smartphones, as well as a growing array of sub-US$250 smartphones in emerging markets.

A business that drives the entire technology sector, with some companies such as Microsoft and RIM in the pursuit of the two mobile operating systems greater share holders: we speak of course Android and iOS.

While the search for IDC seems plausible, on the other hand there are enormous inconsistencies that make us doubt some percentage. What is more important, according to the forecast for the next three years, is a positive trend for Microsoft and Windows Phone, which would rise from the current 2.6% to put a more substantial 11.4% , reaching undisturbed as a third force in the field.

Google's Android OS, which IDC says has a massive 68.3 percent of the smartphone market right now, is expected to shrink slightly to 63.8 percent by 2016. Research in Motion's Blackberry OS is predicted to stay about the same, with IDC predicting it will amount for 4.7 percent of the market in 2016, compared to 4.1 percent in 2012.

So far nothing strange, Android is likely to maintain its leadership in the industry globally, iOS has no major revolutions in the program and could therefore continue to rely on this solid 'fifth' of the market, Microsoft already has these numbers in some countries like Italy, a sign that the rest of the world can adapt in the future.

What seems absurd is instead RIM that would increase from 4.7% to 4.1% over three years. We all know the situation on the edge of the Canadian home, BB10 will come in January and is the ultimate proof that will sanction all the efforts of the company, but it will be out out that she will not escape in case of failure: BlackBerry or 10 shares gain immediately for a clear appreciation of the new OS or sink into debt, there seems to be no middle ground that can make you think of three years 'stagnation'.

Source ; Via